It's not a slippery slope. Fixing defects is rather straightforward, since it's usually a single gene that needs to be edited.
If you want make your baby smarter, taller, or more handsome, it's not so easy because these traits involve 1000s of genes.
For this reason I do not think that curying diseases will lead to designer babies.
If you can affect germline cells, then I don't see how it's not a slippery slope. (I'm not arguing against doing it, just that it is a slope and the slope is slippery.) No designer babies necessary.
I'll steelman "fixing defects" by sticking to serious hereditary diseases (and yes, only those that correspond to one or a few known genes). As more and more conditions become treatable, the population with access to resources will have lower healthcare costs by being less susceptible to problems. (Which is a good thing, note!) Insurance companies will have more and more proxies for differentiating that don't involve direct genetic information. Societally, "those people" [the poor and therefore untreated] cost more to support medically and are an increasing burden on the system. Eugenics gains a scientific basis. Do you want your daughter marrying someone genetically substandard, if you don't have the resources to correct any issues that might show up? Probably not, you're more likely to want to build a wall between you and them. Then throw over anyone who falls behind the bleeding edge of corrections.
It'll be the latest form of redlining, but this time "red" refers literally to blood.
I'm a fan of saying there's always a slippery slope, it's just a matter of the parameters.
But, I think that it's misguided to apply the human problem of othering to a given technology. Regardless of technology X, humans are gonna human. So, if X helps some people, we should consider it on that basis. Because without X, we will still have an endless stream of other reasons to draw red lines, as you allude to. Except in addition we'll also still have the problem that X could've helped solve.
If gene editing to cure diseases leads to a future where people want to shunt off the poor that are now the outsized burden of the healthcare system, the answer from where I sit is to find ways to make the gene therapies available to them, not to cart them off to concentration camps while they await extermination. This will require all the trappings of human coordination we've always had.
Preventing X from ever coming to fruition doesn't at all prevent all possible futures where concentration death camps are a possibility. To me they are orthogonal concerns.
Even if you can convince one culture/society not to do it, how do you stop others? Force? Now you have a different manifestation of the same problem to solve. Society needs to learn how to "yes, and..." more when it comes to this stuff. Otherwise, it's just war all the way down.
I mostly agree. Well:
> This will require all the trappings of human coordination we've always had.
It is also true to say that we've never had it as quickly as it has been needed, and neither is it done as well as it needs to be. We will blunder into things that are easy to predict in advance if we are willing to look and accept what we see, but we won't.
I absolutely agree that this advance is a great thing and should be pursued further. But I also think that simply categorizing it as good or bad is a way to willfully ignore the unintended consequences. We should at least try to do better.
> Society needs to learn how to "yes, and..." more when it comes to this stuff.
Absolutely. I just think that requires nuance, wide open eyes, and acceptance of uncomfortable truths. Part of the nuance is not boiling it down to a yes/no question of "should this proceed?" (For example, how about: "How can we utilize these new capabilities to maximize benefit and minimize harm, when the only real lever we seem to have to work with is the profit motive? Everything else is getting undermined in its service.")
>For this reason I do not think that curying diseases will lead to designer babies.
Well, you're wrong. Where is the line drawn for what constitutes a disease? Retardation? Autism? Eventually every child below, say, 130 IQ will be considered disabled and unable to find work.
Apply this to every other trait: cardiovascular health, strength, height, vision, etc. All forms of weakness can be considered a disease. The end product of eugenics is that mankind will be made into a docile and fragile monoculture.
>If you want make your baby smarter, taller, or more handsome, it's not so easy because these traits involve 1000s of genes.
And? it's obvious that the technology will eventually be capable of this, just not all at once. It starts with single-gene mutations, then it will be 10's of genes, and then hundreds and thousands.
That is the slippery slope: there is absolutely nothing about your reasoning that prevents one step from leading to another.
He wasn't saying that curing diseases wouldn't lead to designer babies because he objects to the idea (though he might). He's saying that the factors that lead to a "130 IQ" score are, to the extent that they're causatively genetic at all, highly polygenic. Molecular genetics results aren't putting us on a track to predict polygenic behavioral traits (I guess except smoking?), let alone control them.
It's helpful to evaluate claims on this thread in the context of the story. It's possible (though still a very open question) that complex behavioral traits will generally become predictable or maybe even controllable in the future. But those would require breakthroughs (including basic science discoveries breaking in the direction baby-designers want them to) more significant than the announcement on this story.
Honestly to me inequality has been always the main reasonable angle of attacking gene editing. But if vaccines are an analogy, many countries were eventually able to mass vaccinate for dangerous diseases. So this could be only the question of cost, after some period of only elite availability.
There's no inherent metaphysical worth in being on any particular level of strength, height etc., so we can spread whatever is the most convenient. I think arguments against (that I see being made) ultimately devolve into some magical thinking and a priori thing bad. (I am glad to be shown otherwise.) In fact we are already messing with human fertility in possibly unsustainable ways, so maybe more tools are needed as a part of the way out.
Of course there is political execution, corruption etc., but I don't see it any different from other technological challenges that civilization has dealt with. I.e. we need better politics but the tech is not at fault. Gene editing is isolated interventions, so it's in that detail more manageable than for example mass surveillance which is hidden and continuous.
One more esoteric argument is that we cannot socially agree on what traits are desirable. The ‘The Twenty-first Voyage of Ijon Tichy’ scenario. So opposite to "monoculture" in a way. But I don't see people expanding on that.
You're certaily unfamiliar with the term "incrementalism" and its workings
No, you're assuming that polygenic trait control "scales" like a sort or even a search algorithm, when there's some molecular genetic evidence that it may instead scale like a cipher key size.