People over-estimate the short term and under-estimate the long term.
Compound growth starting from 0 is... always 0. Current LLMs have 0 general reasoning ability
We haven't even taken the first step towards AGI
0 and 0.0001 may be difficult to distinguish.
You need to show evidence of that 0.0001 first otherwise you're going off blind faith
I didn't make a claim either way.
LLMs may well reach a closed endpoint without getting to AGI - this is my personal current belief - but people are certainly motivated to work on AGI
Oh for sure. I'm just fighting against the AGI hype. If we survive another 10,000 years I think we'll get there eventually but it's anyone's guess as to when