Not really. We’re definitely in the incremental improvement stage at this point. Certainly no indication that progress is “accelerating”.
Integration is accelerating rapidly. Even if model development froze today, we would still probably have ~5 years of adoption and integration before it started to level off.
You are both correct. It feels like the tech itself is kinda plateauing but it's still massively under-used. It will take a decade or more before the deployment starts slowing down.
ChatGPT 3 : iPhone 1
A bunch of models later, we're about on the iPhone 4-5 now. Feels about right.
It's more like GPT-3 is the Manchester Baby, and we're somewhere around IBM 700 series right now. Still a long way to go to iPhone, as much as the industry likes to pretend otherwise.
Both were big consumer commercial breakouts and far better than predecessors. And several years later both see only iterative improvements.
Neither apply to your analogy.