pests • 4 days ago

> People are default overconfident with their estimated error bars.

You say this but yet roughly in a top level comment mentions people keep their error bars too close.

2
kqr • 4 days ago

Sorry, my comment was phrased confusingly.

Being overconfident with error bars means placing them too close to the point estimation, i.e. the error bars are too narrow.

1 reply
pests • 3 days ago

Ah right thanks, I read that backwards.

bigfudge • 4 days ago

They are meaning the same thing. The original comment pointed out that people’s qualitative description and mental model of the 95% interval means they are overconfident… they think 95 means ‘pretty sure I’m right’ rather than ‘it would be surprising to be wrong’