The analogy is with Iain Banks’ The Culture.
Anyone can be anything and do anything they want in an abundant, machine assisted world. The connections, cliques, friends and network you cultivate are more important than ever before if you want to be heard above the noise. Sheer talent has long fallen by the wayside as a differentiator.
…or alternatively it’s not The Culture at all. Is live performance the new, ahem, rock star career? In fifty years time all the lawyers and engineers and bankers will be working two jobs for minimum wage. The real high earners will be the ones who can deliver live, unassisted art that showcases their skills with instruments and their voice.
Those who are truly passionate about the law will only be able to pursue it as a barely-living-wage hobby while being advised to “not give up the night job” — their main, stable source of income — as a cabaret singer. They might be a journalist or a programmer in their twenties for fun before economics forces them to settle down and get a real, stable job: starting a rock band.
The culture presents such a tempting world view for the type of people who populate HN.
I've transitioned from strongly actually believing that such a thing was possible to strongly believing that we will destroy ourselves with AI long before we get there.
I don't even think it'll be from terminators and nuclear wars and that sort of thing. I think it will come wrapped in a hyper-specific personalized emotional intelligence, tuned to find the chinks in our memetic firewalls just so. It'll sell us supplements and personalized media and politicians and we'll feel enormously emotionally satisfied the whole time.
That's why it's so important to reduce all of your personal data points online. Imagine what they can reconstruct based on their modeling and comparing you to similar users. I have 60 years of involuntary data collection ahead of me. This is not going to be fun.
Yes, full agree. I also think there is a future in personal memetic firewalls that will filter ideas before they hit our wetware and filter our tics and habits that uniquely identify us on the way out. Such a firewall would need to be much smarter than we are, but not necessarily as smart as the smartest ai trying to 'attack'. It would have perfect knowledge of its user, and as such possess information assymetry.
> I don't even think it'll be from terminators and nuclear wars and that sort of thing
I do. And I don't even think the issue is a hostile AI. There are 8 billion people in the world. Millions of those people have severe mental issues and would destroy the world if they could. It seems highly likely to me that AI will eventually give at least one of those people the means.
This is explored in the Vulnerable world Hypthesis-argument by Nick Bostrom [1][2]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulnerable_world_hypothesis
That'll be great for the world's natural outsiders. Those that hate pop music and dislike even taylored ads because of the creepy feeling of influence. Or who don't follow any politicians because they're all out to hoodwink you.
Oh, a subset will be at risk of being artificially satisfied but your hardcore grouch will always have a special "yeah, yeah, fuck off bot" attitude.
There will be bots tailored specifically to appeal to the 'fuck off bots' people. We greatly overestimate the capabilities of our emotional firewall.
An AI that is more emotionally intelligent than you is capable of manipulating you. Full stop.
> It'll sell us supplements and personalized media and politicians and we'll feel enormously emotionally satisfied the whole time.
Which is why we'll need to acquire the drug gland technology before AGI - no mind can sell me anything if I can feel content on demand.
Alternatively they can sell you anything if they can make you feel content or euphoric on their command. Get your new drug gland today, free of charge, sponsored by Blackrock
Brings to mind the title of a Roger Waters album:
"Amused to Death"
Great title and an even better album. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amused_to_Death
There is a bias there in action: we are assuming that the entire world is like this thing we just happen to be thinking about.
It is not.
Even if it were just a minority, there are plenty of people outside "this thing" that will profit from the ((putative) majority's) anesthesia. Or which at least will try to set the world on fire (anybody remember the elections in USA a few months ago? That was really dumb. But sometimes a dumb feat shows that one is alive, which is better than doing nothing and being taken for dead. Or it is at least good-enough peacocking to attract mates and pass on the genes, which is just an extravagant theory of mine that I'm almost certainly sure is false. And do not take this as an endorsement of DJT). I'm not being an optimist here; I've seen firsthand the result of revolutions, but it may be the least-bad outcome.
> I've transitioned from strongly actually believing that such a thing was possible to strongly believing that we will destroy ourselves with AI long before we get there.
I think we'll just die out. Everyone will be too busy having fun to have kids. It's already started in the West.
While the west has gone this way, there also seems to be a strong undercurrent (at least here in Australia) of "we can't afford to have kids (yet)".
As housing has moved further out of reach of young people, some don't seem to feel their lives are stable enough to make the leap. The trend was down anyway, but the housing crisis seems to be an aggravating factor.
Yep people blame technology but its really basic economics and would be fixed by building more affordable homes.
This subject has been investigated a lot. In many countries governments make it much easier and more affordable to have children, and it doesn't seem to make any difference.
I agree, using housing as a source of wealth has broken a whole generation. When the boomers of the world start to massively die out (any year now), housing will deflate, but not spectacularly without a crisis (people don't want to settle where the cheap houses are in a bull market).
I wouldn't call my kid-skipping activites fun, but go off.
Spending a life on the treadmill doesn't encourage more walks. It encourages burning it down. All I've known is work. Pass on more, thanks. I hear you/others now:
But past generations managed...
To get where I could afford to have kids, I became both unprepared and uninterested.
What's more: I'm one of the lucky ones. I was given a fancy title and great-but-not-domicile-ownership-great pay for my sacrifice. Plenty do more work for even less reward.
There's a sucker born every minute, right?
> The real high earners will be the ones who can deliver live, unassisted art that showcases their skills with instruments and their voice.
We already have so many of those that it’s very hard to make any sort of living at it. Very hard to see a world in which more people go into that market and can earn a living as anything other than a fantasy.
Cynically - I think we'd probably end up with more influencers, people who are young, good looking and/or charismatic enough to hold the attention of other people for long enough to sell them something.
The Culture is about a post-capitalist utopia. You’re describing yet another cyberpunk-esque world where people have still have to do wage-labor to not starve.
You’re right so I made a slight edit to separate my two ideas. Thanks for even reading them at all! I try to contribute positively to this site when I can, and riffing on the overlap between fiction and real-life — a la Doctorow — seems like a good way to be curious.
> Those who are truly passionate about the law will only be able to pursue it as a barely-living-wage hobby while being advised to “not give up the night job” — their main, stable source of income — as a cabaret singer. They might be a journalist or a programmer in their twenties for fun before economics forces them to settle down and get a real, stable job: starting a rock band.
Controversial stance probably, but this very much sounds like a world I'd love to live in.
Naah… in the culture you could change your sex at will, something soon to be illegal.