Seems more likely that Orange would just be producing 16x the mediocre C-tier work they were doing before. This scenario assumes that the problem from the lower-tier programmers is their volume of work, but if you aren't able to properly understand the problems or solutions in the first place, LLMs are not going to fix it for you.

Chances are Grape and Apple will eventually adopt LLMs because they need to in order to fix the mistakes Orange is now producing at scale.

Nice write up. I don't necessary think it is "if you adopt it, you will flourish" as much as, if you have this type of "personality you will easily become 10x, if you have this type of personality you will become 2x and if you have this type, you will become .5x".

I'm obviously biased, but I believe developers with a technical entrepreneur mindset, will see the most benefit. This paradigm shift requires the ability to properly articulate your thoughts and be able to create problem statements for every action. And honestly, not everybody can do this.

Obviously, a lot depends on the problems being solved and how well trained the LLM is in that person's domain. I had Claude and a bunch of other models write my GitSense Chat Bridge code which makes it possible to bring Git's history into my chat app and it is slow as hell. It works most of the time, but it was obvious that the design pattern was based on simple CRUD apps. And this is where LLMs will literally slow you down and I know this because I already solved this problem. The LLM generated chat bridge code will be free and open sourced but I will charge for my optimized indexing engine.