beloch 8 days ago

Factories, tooling, machinery, etc. must be amortized over a market and production run. If you're making toilet paper, the cost is relatively low and the market is huge. The TP you make today will still be good TP in a decade. No one toilet paper factory can serve the world, so you'll need many of them in many markets. The inputs can be found within the U.S.. Why not build one in the U.S.?

A factory that produces a specific model of phone is only going to be able to run for a few years before it needs to retool for a newer model. That means a huge investment goes into such a factory on a continual basis. If one factory can serve the entire world demand for that model, why build two?

If you're going to build just one factory, are you going to build it in a market that's walled off behind trade barriers, both for outputs and inputs? Only if that market is significantly bigger than the rest of the world combined. If the rest of the world is bigger, than you build outside the trade barriers and people inside of them will just have to pay more.

Tariff's might bring low-end, high-volume manufacturing back to the U.S.. Chip fabs, phone factories, or anything so high-end/low-volume that it must be amortized over a global market is not going to return to the U.S. because of tariff's. An administration that changes their minds every few hours only makes matters worse. Whether Trump has recognized this and is conceding defeat or he's bowing to pressure from companies like Apple is immaterial. That kind of factory is not coming to the U.S. anytime soon.

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speleding 8 days ago

I agree with your general point, but I just read the book "Your life is manufactured" by Tim Minshall, in which he describes the production of toilet paper in detail and it's a surprising global industry. Wood pulp with the correct density comes from a few specific places on the globe (Scandinavia and South America apparently).

washadjeffmad 8 days ago

Those are big markets, but there are a lot of suitable softwoods for pulp production, farmed around the globe. Ideally, you want to use ones with good natural ratios of lignin to cellulose and hemicellulose (that's just to say, the constituents of biomass) to minimize processing and chemistry costs.