Completely agree no 4D chess here. Just a guy that wants to keep the attention on him, one day is kissing Russia's ass, the next day when "peace" is failing, it's tariffs, etc etc no strategy at all, just a show to stay on first page day after day.
It's more than that. What you say is true about his character, but there is also a playbook to keep power. The autocrats copy one another. And he has people like Steven Bannon who are strategizing how he can serve a third term.