forinti 9 days ago

I think the most probable outcome is that Trump causes enough trouble to incite the whole country against him.

I don't see him completing his term. He's going to be impeached.

4
baby_souffle 8 days ago

If he's impeached, it will be after midterms change the composition of the house. He will be acquitted in the Senate though

YZF 8 days ago

It's theoretically possible that the Republicans will also want him removed from office. Right now it feels unlikely. If he had kept the random crazy tariffs high and that resulted in some financial disaster that was more likely. But he changed his mind and the markets seem to be recovering (so much for we lost trust and it'll never be the same again).

gscott 9 days ago

The rich have always blamed others for the growing wealth gap.

Americans often point to outside forces instead of holding the government accountable.

Years of messaging have trained people to support tariffs, spending cuts, and even anti-immigrant policies—despite the need for labor.

The real issue isn't spending, it's taxation. And we've let China ignore WTO rules for too long. Trump should've targeted tariffs at China alone—but he is the president, not me.

pbhjpbhj 8 days ago

Specifically, what WTO rules are your saying China has ignored?

gscott 8 days ago

I am just going to go with Google AI on that one

China's WTO compliance record is often criticized for several reasons, including violations of market orientation principles, state-led industrial planning, excessive subsidies, and non-transparency regarding subsidies. Furthermore, China's policies on forced technology transfers, intellectual property protection, and governmental procurement have also faced scrutiny. Here's a more detailed look at the specific WTO rules China has been criticized for ignoring:

Market Orientation and State-Led Industrial Policies: China's approach to economic development, characterized by state-led industrial planning, is seen as inconsistent with the WTO's principles of market orientation and non-discrimination.

Subsidies and State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs): China's extensive use of subsidies for domestic industries, including SOEs, and its failure to make timely and transparent notifications of these subsidies, are major points of contention.

Forced Technology Transfers and Joint Venture Requirements: China has been criticized for requiring foreign companies to transfer technology to Chinese firms as a condition for market access, which violates WTO principles of fair trade and market competition.

Intellectual Property Protection: China's record on protecting foreign intellectual property rights, including trade secrets, has been a long-standing issue, with concerns about theft and lack of enforcement.

Discriminatory Trade Practices: China's policies on governmental procurement, discriminatory standards for technology, and restrictions on market access in services sectors have been criticized for hindering fair competition and market access for foreign companies.

Failure to Reciprocally Open Government Procurement: China has been criticized for not fully reciprocating the government procurement concessions it pledged as part of its WTO accession agreement. Retaliatory Use of Trade Remedies:

China's use of trade remedies, such as anti-dumping and safeguard measures, has sometimes been seen as retaliatory and inconsistent with WTO princip

(They were also supposed to let Visa and Mastercard in)

Also Capital Controls are a big one. You can't get your money out and I have read several times people are forced to spend more money in China to get part of their money out.

More Google AI

China maintains strict capital controls, limiting the flow of money in and out of the country. These controls affect both individuals and companies, with restrictions on repatriating profits and capital. While there are annual limits for individuals, businesses also face specific procedures and conditions before they can repatriate profits, according to INS Global Consulting. Elaboration: For Individuals:

    Annual Limits:
    Chinese residents have an annual limit of $50,000 USD equivalent for transferring money out of the country, says Wise. 
Currency Exchange: RMB cannot be transferred directly; it must be converted to foreign currency, notes INS Global Consulting. Work Permit: Individuals must have a work permit and be employed in China to be eligible for repatriation, according to INS Global Consulting. Required Documents: Applications for repatriation require documents like passports, employment contracts, and tax bills, says INS Global Consulting. Exchanges and Fees: Individuals can use banks or exchange agencies (like Western Union and MoneyGram), but fees will vary, says INS Global Consulting.

For Companies (FIEs - Foreign Invested Enterprises):

    Capital Account Regulations:
    China's "closed" capital account means companies must comply with strict rules when moving money in or out, according to CNN. 
Profits Repatriation: Companies can only repatriate profits after specific conditions are met, including tax compliance and a company's annual audit. Surplus Reserve Fund: Companies must allocate a portion of their after-tax profits to a mandatory surplus reserve fund, which can impact the amount available for repatriation, notes China Briefing. Withholding Tax: Dividends repatriated to foreign investors are subject to a 10% withholding tax, says China Briefing. State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): The SAFE regulates capital account transactions and requires foreign investors to open separate accounts for current and capital accounts, notes China Briefing. New Controls: Increased government oversight and security measures have been introduced to scrutinize outbound investments, according to China Briefing.

In Summary: China's capital controls are a complex system that limits both individual and corporate capital movements. While there are some recent efforts to relax controls, they remain a significant factor for businesses and individuals operating in China, requiring careful planning and compliance with regulations before any money can be moved out of the country.

https://sccei.fsi.stanford.edu/china-briefs/chinas-use-unoff...

asimpletune 8 days ago

Targeted tariffs don’t have an effect because products are reimported from china via other countries like Mexico.

stevage 8 days ago

He was impeached twice already with zero impact. No one is forcing him to leave office.

scarface_74 9 days ago

About 30-40% of the country will stand behind the cult of Trump no matter what he does. With that power, almost every single Republican politician is afraid of getting primaried. Trump has already been impeached twice and it went nowhere.

pbhjpbhj 8 days ago

It's crazy that the election hinged on such small proportions of the population, that the result for Trump was prison or wealth (through further lawlessness) and the result for USA was a chance for middle-of-the-road socialism vs a rapid descent into being a fascist regime.

Crazy knife edge.

InitialLastName 8 days ago

You're kidding yourself (or you've been misled) if you think there was a chance of anything approaching socialism from a Harris administration. Even granting the benefit of the doubt that "middle-of-the-road socialism" was what she meant by "opportunity economy", there still stands the fact that construction is complex, and takes coordination between interests at scale where destruction is simple and can be done (apparently) unilaterally.

Per Churchill, “To build may have to be the slow and laborious task of years. To destroy can be the thoughtless act of a single day.” .

scarface_74 8 days ago

So exactly what “socialist” policies would you have gotten under Kamala?