> chatbots ... provided for free ... ads
Just because the first LLM product people paid for was a chatbot does not mean that chat will be the dominant commercial use of AI.
And if the dominant use is agents that replace knowledge workers, then they'll cost closer to $2000 per month than $20 or free, and an ad-based business model won't work.
True. This is my point too.
The actual business models and revenue sources are still unknown. Consumer subscriptions happens to be the first major model. Ads still aren't. Many other models could dwarf either of these.
It's very early to call the final score.
I still think it's pretty clear. Google doesn't have to get a new business off the ground, just keep improving the integration into Workspace, Gmail, Cloud, Android etc. I don't see users paying for ChatGPT and then copy/pasting into those other places even if the model is slightly better. Google will just slowly roll out premium plans that include access to AI features.
And as far as selling pickaxes go, GCP is in a far better position to serve the top of market than OpenAI. Some companies will wire together multiple point solutions but large enterprises will want a consolidated complete stack. GCP already offers you compute clusters and BigQuery and all the rest.