> I don't think AI will have much of an impact on management consulting, since it's really just executive insurance. If anything, management consulting might be the perfect use for generative AI in its current state.
I think your second point is actually the reason why this will have a big impact on the industry, since McKinsey et al generally operate on a billable hours basis, and automation / AI will exert significant downward pressure.
Initially, I imagine they will staff smaller teams at a higher hourly rate (mostly by replacing some number of analysts and associates with automation/AI). Long term, I can imagine some firms will attempt to make up for the loss of revenues by expanding into SMBs ("Own a struggling Plumbing business? Get help from McKinseyAI!") or by dramatically reducing the size of their staff (as you noted, their product is mostly executive insurance, and for that you really only need the Partners).
Totally agree - the industry will thrive (unlike some others that could be totally obsoleted in an AI-powered economy), but it will need far fewer paid humans to run it.
The retention of accountability and access to otherwise-inaccessible information will continue to be among the hottest commodities.
If you’ve ever wondered what makes “shady data brokers” so powerful in cyberpunk stories, it’s not their collections of stolen credit card numbers - it’s insider knowledge of what your trillion-dollar competitor is doing.