It's getting old but there's an xkcd for your kind of reasoning:
Isn't this essentially the same argument as "there are only 10 covid cases in this area, nothing to worry about"?
It's really missing the point, the point is whether or not exponential growth is happening or not. It doesn't with husbands, it does with covid, time will tell about AI.
No, because as you rightly point out we know exponential growth is very possible with Covid but we don't know if that will happen with AI.
In fact, the only evidence we have for exponential growth in AI is the word of the people selling it to us.
Transformers have been around for 7 years, ChatGPT for 2. This isn't the first few samples of what could be exponential growth. These are several quarters of overpromise and underdelivery. The chatbot is cool and it outperforms what awful product search has become. But is it enough to support a 3.5 trillion dollar sized parts supplier?