Without getting political, please, does anyone have a good argument for the expected inflationary pressures of the next year or two? Tariffs will make prices go up, investment in infrastructure will make prices go up… but on the other hand, AI & robotics seems to be a deflationary pressure… where does one go for scenario analysis of the next year or two?
This article scared me a bit with the notion of banks implementing “quantitative freezing.”
> Without getting political
> inflationary pressures of the next year
You can't really separate these two. If central bank targeting is left alone and the policies implemented aren't too disruptive (i.e. not the wild claims of the campaign), then it won't move much. If some of the wilder claims are implemented, all bets are off.
In addition to tariffs, expelling millions of people out of the country will have inflationary effects as well, in many different ways [0].
0 - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/business/economy/trump-im...
Ok, you mean on the US...
Keep in mind that the US government (like almost the entire world) has control of inflation, and through more means than you will think of.
Anyway, all of those are real factors, but inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Those two don't need to have any kind of correlation.
Personally, I have not follow US news closely enough to understand what Trump wants to do with monetary policy.